Anupam Kashyapi, head of weather forecasting division, India Meteorological Department, Pune, told TOI, “As per the latest extended range forecast, the wind pattern over the Bay of Bengal is likely to turn westerly in more areas in the next 5-7 days. Models indicate that around June 2-8, both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches will be strengthening further. But till June 8, there still isn’t much rainfall over Maharashtra.”
He added, “Thereafter, both the branches will further strengthen, allowing monsoon to enter south Maharashtra, covering parts of Konkan-Goa and south central madhya Maharashtra till June 9-15. During the third and fourth week of extended range forecast , usually model accuracy is low. But this is the extended range forecast picture so far.”
He said monsoon was likely to cover the majority of the state during June 16-22 as per the extended range forecast. “More clarity on likely onset dates for Pune and Mumbai will emerge once monsoon makes an onset over Kerala,” Kashyapi said.
Monsoon usually enters south Maharashtra around June 7, while it covers the entire state by June 15. “Thus the mean delay in monsoon covering entire state is likely to be around 4-5 days,” he said.
Indian weather expert Dr Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the University of Reading, UK, told TOI, “Monsoon normally reaches southern Maharashtra around June 8. The onset over Kerala this year is going to be delayed by around four days and forecasts suggest that this delay will continue. So the monsoon is unlikely to reach Maharashtra before June 8 due to which hot weather will continue.”
