Anupam Kashyapi, head of the weather forecasting division, India Meteorological Department (IMD), said, “The normal date for monsoon onset over extreme southern districts of Maharashtra is around June 6-7, while it covers the entire state by around June 15. But due to the system over the Arabian Sea, the monsoon is unlikely to enter parts of Maharashtra till around June 8 at least.”
A nupam Kashyapi, head of the weather forecasting division, IMD, said beyond that date, the extended range forecast showed chances of onset over southern parts of Maharashtra is likely to be around June 14-15. It is likely that monsoon may cover the entire state during June 16-22 week, as well as parts of central India.
Conditions were favourable for Kerala onset soon, he said. An IMD update on Monday said a cyclonic circulation lies over Southeast Arabian sea up to the middle tropospheric levels. Under its influence, a low pressure area is very likely to form over the same region during the next 24 hours.
It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a depression in southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian sea during subsequent 48 hours. Dr Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the University of Reading, UK, who is closely following the southwest monsoon, told TOI, “The monsoon onset vortex has formed about 1,000 km off the coast of Kerala.
By around June 8, it could intensify into a tropical cyclone. This will be the third tropical cyclone to form from an onset vortex in the the last five years after cyclones Vayu and Nisarga in 2019 and 2020, respectively. There is no threat to the western coast of India, as the cyclone will move away from the coast.
The deep sea will, however, remain rough.” He added, “The cyclone will strengthen monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea. Following the expected onset over Kerala, the monsoon is expected to rapidly advance into Karnataka and Goa by around June 12. Thereafter, the monsoon is expected to reach South Konkan in a day or two, but it is not expected to reach MumbaiMMR before 15 June.”
Deoras said, “The Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon will progress at a slower rate. So the monsoon will be delayed and will not reach interior areas of Maharashtra before June 15. The exact onset date remains unclear, but we should start seeing rainfall activities after June 15.”