The normal monsoon onset date for Pune is June 10, while it is June 11 for the state capital, Mumbai.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of IMD Pune’s weather forecasting division, told TOI: “A trough line establishing over Arabian Sea covering Maharashtra to Kerala coast is very likely to strengthen the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon current in the coming days. Hence, conditions will be favourable for further advance of the monsoon over more areas of Maharashtra, including Pune and Mumbai from June 18 to June 22.” But he added that the progress of the monsoon over north Maharashtra and Vidarbha will take more time.
IMD also said on Thursday that conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of south peninsular and east India, and adjoining areas between June 18 and June 21.
However, weather expert Akshay Deoras said that the monsoon was not expected to progress any further in Maharashtra until June 22, and added that the weather will continue to remain mostly hot.
“Along the coast, there is no sign of a well-developed offshore trough, so the atmosphere over Konkan and Mumbai will remain significantly dry in this period,” Deoras said. “There won’t be proper rainfall in order to declare the monsoon’s progression before June 22. However, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon’s progression after around June 23.”
“Even in interior parts of the state, scattered rainfall activities are expected to commence after around June 23, suggesting that the monsoon can progress between the last week of June and early July,” he added.
He said kharif sowing should not be carried out in rainfed areas at least until June 22. “The sowing window in the state is open until July 15, so the percentage of sowing will depend on how well distributed the rainfall is after June 23,” Deoras said.