An India Meteorological Department (IMD) official on Friday said rainfall in parts of the state was likely to gradually reduce.
Till the 24 hours up to July 6, several ghat regions recorded isolated heavy to very heavy rain on several occasions. But it was less than the prediction. Pune city received less than 1mm of rain in several major IMD stations over a 24-hour period till July 7. Unlike Pune city, rainfall intensity increased in ghats during the 24 hours till July 7, with Shirgaon recording 113mm, Ambone 122mm, Dungerwadi 103mm and Tamhini 112mm.
This has still not been the strongest rain spell of the season so far as several experts had hoped a few days ago. The IMD official said the anticipated weather event did not materialize as expected, primarily due to the weakening of the Arabian Sea monsoon branch, resulting in a reduction in the strength of westerlies. The diminished intensity of the westerly winds impacted the anticipated rainfall activity in the region.
Anupam Kashyapi, head of the IND’s weather forecasting division, told TOI, “As per the current forecasts, a reduction in rainfall activity is very likely after July 8 over Konkan, Goa, and even in the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra for approximately four days. Parts of the state have recently also experienced isolated instances of heavy to very heavy rainfall in some ghats and lakes.” From 8:30am till 5:30pm on Friday, Shivajinagar received 0.9mm rainfall, Pashan 2mm, Lohegaon 0.8mm and Chinchwad 4mm. Lavale and Magarpattta recorded no rainfall.
Kashyapi, however, explained that though extreme rainfall was not reported in parts of the state during the current spell, isolated locations recorded heavy to very heavy rainfall in the last couple of days. “On Thursday, ghat areas had received less rainfall, but since Wednesday, we are seeing on and off good rainfall, including heavy spells in ghats,” he said.
An IMD official said the weather models were earlier showing isolated heavy rainfall for a day in Pune also during the current spell. But sometimes, due to complexities involved in weather forecasting and the inherent (dynamics) /variability of the monsoon system, deviation occurs at the final stage. While meteorological agencies face difficulties to provide accurate predictions, factors such as the strength and positioning of weather systems can lead to deviations from initial forecasts. But the latest forecast updates are more accurate.
Weather expert Vineet Kumar Singh said, “The Pune-Satara ghat areas saw good rainfall on Friday. Tamhini ghat got 112mm in the last 24 hours till Friday morning. The current spell in parts of Maharashtra was, however, not as was expected earlier because the westerly winds were not that much strong as expected and mainly centred towards south Maharashtra, and Karnataka-Goa coast. Rain in Vidarbha was good enough in past couple of days due to the contribution of the Bay of Bengal branch.”